Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates did fall yesterday. But only by the smallest measurable amount. Of course, these rates remain incredibly low by historical standards. But they’re appreciably higher than they were a couple of weeks ago.

Movements in mortgage rates today are unpredictable. That’s because they’re likely to be almost completely reliant on events later on Capitol Hill. And nobody has a clue how they will turn out. But, for what it’s worth, those rates were appreciably higher first thing.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

It’s too soon to assume that yesterday’s tiny fall in mortgage rates is significant. I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks that occasional days and periods of falls are inevitable, regardless of the underlying trend.

So it’s more than possible that yesterday’s drop (and any subsequent ones) are simply bond markets taking a breather before continuing on upward for yields and mortgage rates. And I suspect that’s the case.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes climbed to 1.54% from 1.50%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices fell to $73.37 from $74.64 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices inched up to $1,739 from $1,738 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — edged higher to 31 from 28 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, even with that caveat, mortgage rates today are highly unpredictable. 

Find and lock a low rate (Sep 30th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Today is a hugely important one for mortgage rates. Because events in Congress later will determine whether they rise or fall, perhaps significantly.

Yesterday evening, The Washington Post (paywall) referred to “the sheer magnitude of the legislative activity on Capitol Hill” today. And it summed up what’s at stake:

President [Joe] Biden and congressional Democrats raced in the final hours before key votes on Thursday to salvage a signature economic initiative and stave off a government shutdown, hoping to quell a rebellion among their own party while mollifying last-minute Republican concerns about a separate spending bill.