Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged up yesterday. And that was typical of the gentle seesawing we’ve seen for several weeks now.

So far, it’s looking as if mortgage rates today may fall. That’s because, in spite of this morning’s employment report being much better than last month’s, it fell short of expectations.

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 4th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 4th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

If you scroll through Freddie Mac’s archive of weekly averages for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rates, you’ll see little has happened recently. Let’s pick April 22 as a random start point. That average was 2.97% that week. And, since then, its lowest has been 2.94% (4/15). And its highest was 3% (5/20). In yesterday’s latest release, it stood at 2.99%. Those differences are tiny.

According to most economists and industry insiders, it’s much more likely that mortgage rates will rise than fall when they begin again to move outside the current range. Of course, those floating in the hope of yet lower mortgage rates might yet be proved right. But that’s looking improbable.

And that’s why my personal, overall rate lock recommendations must remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 1.58% from 1.62%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices climbed to $69.59 from $69.01 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices rose to $1,893 from $1,871 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — rose to 49 from 46 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to move lower. However, be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 4th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

The monthly, official employment situation report is arguably the most influential of all economic reports at the moment. And its latest edition was published this morning.

After disappointing figures last month, it’s bounced back. But not by as much as most analysts expected. Yes, the unemployment rate fell to 5.8% and average hourly earnings were up by 0.5%. But the nonfarm payroll number rose by 559,000, rather than the MarketWatch consensus forecast of 671,000. Hence this morning’s fall in mortgage rates.

Reasons for rises

We’ve recently been covering extensively the reasons why we think mortgage rates are likely to rise. For more background, check out our latest weekend edition of this report. But here they are as bullet points:

1. A booming economy — Usually brings higher mortgage rates
2. The possibility of a “taper tantrum” — This happens when the Fed stops keeping borrowing costs artificially low. And the last time it tried that mortgage rates shot up
3. Fear of future inflation — This often goes hand-in-hand with economic booms and high government borrowing. High inflation almost always brings high mortgage rates

All those are currently looking likely. Of course, nothing’s inevitable. But it would take a brave gambler to bet on the much less probable scenarios that might see mortgage rates fall by a worthwhile amount.

Mortgage rates and inflation: Why are rates going up?

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.

However, those rises were mostly replaced by falls in April, though those moderated during the second half of that month. Meanwhile, May saw falls outweighing rises. Freddie’s June 3 report puts that weekly average at 2.99% (with 0.6 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 2.95%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2/21, Q3/21, Q4/21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on May 19 and the MBA’s on May 21. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14. But it now updates only quarterly. So expect its numbers to begin to look stale soon.

Forecaster	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21	Q1/22
Fannie Mae	3.0%	3.1%	3.2%	3.3%
Freddie Mac	3.2%	3.3%	3.4%	3.5%
MBA	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Jun 4th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology