Tariff reprieve jolts markets, Treasury gaps loom

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Weekly jobless claims were expected to show 209,000 but were reported to be 200,000 so a little market unfriendly, while Final GDP, which was due out more than a month ago, was reported to be 4.4% vs the expected 4.3% and the Price Index came in as expected at 3.8%.

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Yesterday, yields basically went sideways until around 2:30 when news hit the tapes that proposed tariffs on European countries related to Greenland had been called off and the next 20 minutes saw treasury yields drop several bps, the SPX spike up 90 points, and gold fall $100.

The 5-year yield fell less than a basis point, but that was enough for it to fill the bearish gap it left Tuesday morning, but the gaps left by the 10-year and 30-year were only narrowed. The 5-year yield finished the day back on the friendly side of the trendline from the April yield crest which had been broken on Tuesday so that was a good thing, and with the 3:00 closes better than they were on Tuesday and better than yesterday's openings, those were also good things, but neither the 5-year yield nor the 10-year yield managed to get back into the channels which they broke out of on Tuesday so as has so often been the case, there was a little something for everybody.

Being a believer that overnight gaps are perhaps the most important technical features that exist, what struck me the most at yesterday's closes were that strong openings this morning would leave bullish 2-day island reversals, while weak openings would leave the bearish gaps on the 10 and 30-year charts intact and still ominous looking.

Neither happened as treasuries opened slightly softer, had little reaction to the 8:30 news, and as 9:00 approached the 10-year yield remained above yesterday's low, while the 30-year yield was just 0.2 bps below yesterday's low, so the gaps were still intact.

Not to be ignored is the fact that the 10-year gap shows up on its weekly chart and weekly gaps are few and far between. For the gaps to be filled the 10-year yield needs to reach 4.233, the 30-year 4.843, and absent trades at those levels, I'd rather be short than long.