The latest House Price Index from Zoopla suggests that 2024 is set to be a bumper year for house sales.
According to Zoopla data, rising incomes combined with average mortgage rates at their lowest for two years, have culminated in the highest level of new sales since late 2020.
Comparatively, house prices are rising slowly, up by just 1% over the last 12 months, compared to -0.9% a year ago. Price inflation is being held back by a large supply of homes on the market and affordability pressures which are keeping buying power in check.
In more affordable areas, house prices are rising at an above-average rate. For example the North-East (2%), Yorkshire & Humberside (2%), North-West (2.3%), Scotland (2.4%) and Northern Ireland (5.6%).
Conversely, house prices are down slightly in Eastern England (-0.3%) and the South-East (-0.1%). UK house prices remain on track to be 2% higher over 2024 as price falls from this time last year drop out of the annual rate of price inflation.
Sustained growth in new sales over 2024 has led to the largest sales pipeline the market has seen for four years. Zoopla’s index shows that there are currently 306,000 homes working their way through the buying process to completion, 62,250 (26%) more than a year ago.
The total value of these sales has hit £113bn, 30%higher than this time last year when a spike in mortgage rates hit buyer demand and reduced the number of sales agreed over second half of 2023.
Momentum in new sales remains strong and looks set to continue into December, supported by a high supply of homes for sale. Many of the most recent sales will complete in the first half of 2025.
First time buyers
The growth in sales is being driven by a combination of first-time buyers (FTBs) and existing homeowners who have delayed moving decisions until borrowing costs fell and the outlook improved. FTBs are set to be the biggest buyer cohort in 2024, accounting for 36% of all sales followed by existing homeowners (31%), cash buyers (27%) and landlords buying with a mortgage (7 per cent).
The rapid growth in rents and the decline in mortgage rates have shifted renting versus buying dynamics, supporting more FTB purchases. The average mortgage repayment for a typical UK FTB home is 17% cheaper than renting, compared to a much smaller 2% difference a year ago when mortgage rates were higher.
Commenting on the Zoopla data Hargreaves Lansdown head of personal finance Sarah Coles said: “This is the year of the first-time buyer, as the horror of renting is persuading more tenants to take the leap into home ownership. Rents have been driven up and mortgages rates are dropping, so that owning a typical first-time buyer home is now 17% cheaper than renting.
“Escaping the rental trap is no mean feat. Lower mortgage rates mean that once they’ve built a deposit, their monthly outgoings can be much lower. However, the real challenge is building a deposit at the same time as paying sky high rents.”
Propertymark chief executive Nathan Emerson said: “We have seen an encouraging transformation across the year in terms of a resilient trend of house price growth. Affordability and overall confidence in the sector have also seen a boost throughout the year so far.
He added: “Considering the UK Government has an ambitious aim to deliver growth following what has been a turbulent few years, we hope that this week’s Autumn Budget will be used as a springboard to improve housing supply. Propertymark has long argued that Stamp Duty reform is one way to do that, especially for those wishing to downsize.”
