Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged lower yesterday. And conventional loans started out this morning at 3.0% (3.0% APR) for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. 

Yesterday’s fall in mortgage rates, the third in a row, came as a surprise to us. We’d assumed they’d rise with other markets. But it was a reminder of how elastic the relationship between those rates and markets are. I expect mortgage rates to move modestly lower again today, barring unforeseen events.

Find and lock a low rate (Nov 17th, 2020)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Nov 17th, 2020)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

I wouldn’t lock today unless I were close to closing. But I wouldn’t blame you if you were to do so. You’d be getting a sweet deal and the winnings from hanging on aren’t likely to be all that great. A bird in the hand …

My thinking is that the pandemic is going to see us endure a very grim winter — medically and economically. And that’s likely to bring yet lower mortgage rates, with good news items bringing just occasional rises.

But, as always, I might be wrong. See “Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?” (below) for more.

Still, my personal rate lock recommendations are:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• FLOAT if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with about the same time yesterday morning, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 0.87% from 0.90%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices rose to $41.05 from $41.65 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices inched down to $1,885 from $1,888 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Edged lower to 66 from 69 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, they’re looking quiet for mortgage rates today.

Find and lock a low rate (Nov 17th, 2020)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. So expect short-term rises as well as falls. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently appreciably higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today

I think mortgage rates are likely to edge lower again today.

Don’t believe the stock market’s myth that it in any way reflects economic reality. Yes, it says that it’s looking ahead and reflects some vision of a future reality. But you’ll find better crystal balls than its in a Brighton Beach fortuneteller’s parlor.

Having said that, there were good grounds for optimism following yesterday’s announcement about the 94.5% efficacy of Moderna’s vaccine. But it had less to do with that figure than the ease with which it can be stored and distributed.

Pfizer’s vaccine must be stored at -103 degrees Fahrenheit while Moderna’s is fine at -4 Fahrenheit. The latter is within the range of most freezer trucks as well as freezers in pharmacies, hospitals and doctors’ offices — while the former typically isn’t.

But all that is irrelevant to this winter — and possibly next spring and beyond. Because it’s highly likely that too few inoculations will have been administered before mid-2021 to have a significant effect on the pandemic.

Meanwhile, governors and mayors in countless places are imposing new restrictions to try to contain the spread of COVID-19. And all those will inevitably impact the economy.

That’s why I believe mortgage rates have further to fall. Of course, there will be good news along the way. And we’ll no doubt see those rates rise from time to time. But how likely is it those rises will be either sharp or sustained?

Recently

Over the last few months, the overall trend for mortgage rates has clearly been downward. A new all-time low was set during each of the weeks ending Oct. 15 and 22 and Nov. 5, according to Freddie Mac. However, last Thursday’s report said rates had “jumped” that week.

But note that Freddie’s figures relate to purchase mortgages alone and ignore refinances. And if you average out across both, rates have been consistently higher than the all-time low since a record set in August. The gap between the two has been widened by a controversial regulatory change.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the last quarter of 2020 (Q4/20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21 and Q3/21).

But note that Fannie’s (out on Nov. 17 — yes, today) and the MBA’s (Oct. 21) are updated monthly. However, Freddie’s are now published quarterly. And its latest was released on Oct. 14.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages:

Forecaster	Q4/20	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21
Fannie Mae	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Freddie Mac	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	3.0%	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%

So predictions vary considerably. You pays yer money …

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been made nervous by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Nov 17th, 2020)

Mortgage rate methodology