Tightening supply increasing house price growth rate: Rics | Mortgage Strategy

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Demand for housing is rapidly overtaking supply, causing house price growth to ramp up, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

A net balance of 44% of respondents of the Rics survey for April saw enquiries from new buyers increase, and for the first time in 2021, demand was positive in every region of the UK.

While the headline net balance above is little changed from that of March – 43% – dwindling listings was named as the main cause of concern for respondents.

Here, there was a net balance of -4% regarding new instructions from owners looking to sell. This compares to a net balance of 21% in March.

And the average number of properties for sale per estate agent dropped to 40 in April, having numbered 46 in December last year.

A net balance of 75% of respondents replied that house prices had risen in April, compared to 62% in March. Meanwhile, there was a slowdown in the net balance reporting that agreed sales had risen – from 48% in March to 34% in April.

In the short-term, 47% predict price increases, and a net balance of 68% believe that prices will continue to rise 12 months hence.

In the rental market, tenant demand shot up, at a net balance of 60% – this read as 14% at the start of the year.

As with house sales, price rises are expected short- and long-term, with Rics survey respondents seeing an increase of 3% over the next 12 months.

A combination of the “general improvement in the Covid situation across the UK” and, once more, tight supply are cited as reasons for this.

A 12-month rise is predicted for rental prices in London, too – for the first time since early 2020.

Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn says: “Housing supply, or more pertinently, the shortfall in supply relative to demand is the key theme coming through loud and clear from respondents.

“While it may be simplistic to assume that higher numbers alone can redress the affordability issue particularly in a low interest rate environment, an uplift in delivery does have a role to play.

“Planning reforms as outlined in The Queen’s Speech are likely to provide part of the answer although it is critical, particularly with regard to permitted development rights, that quality and safety are not compromised.

“Ensuring a broad range of tenures in the delivery pipeline is also important with anecdotal evidence from the survey emphasising a severe lack of stock in the private rental market as likely to drive up rents sharply over the next year.”

“Property is the new toilet roll,” says Hargreaves Lansdown personal finance analyst Sarah Coles. “Buyers are clamouring to get their hands on the dwindling number of properties on estate agents’ books. Homes are getting snapped up at a frenetic pace and at ever-higher prices. And surveyors are expecting more of the same this summer.

“House price rises have continued to accelerate, and in the immediate future we can be reasonably confident this will continue.

“Buyers need to take enormous care not to get carried away in the house-buying frenzy. It’s easy to feel you need to act fast and bid high to get the home you want, but this doesn’t mean you should over-stretch yourself.

“The heat in the market won’t last forever. And when this inevitably cyclical market changes, you need to be left feeling you bought the home you wanted for a price you could afford.”


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