Victoria Market Overview - Last month we talked about increased “pre-data” activity and anecdotal evidence of both buyers and sellers returning to the market. By the end of February, the numbers caught up and reported significant increases in sales from January although not enough to rival February 2022 when the market was stronger overall. Some of this activity is simply seasonality as we head into what is traditionally the busiest time in Real Estate.
Somewhat more interesting is that inventory posted very small gains from January which created a wild swing in “months of inventory” (MOI) which is a tool for gauging if a market is a buyer or seller market. As we have said in almost every update for the last six months, the market is currently very sensitive to interest from buyers as our supply issue hasn’t really been solved. The sales to active listing ratio also shot up in February to a level that would traditionally be putting mild upward pressure on prices, although nothing like what we were seeing before May 2022.
Getting into the Numbers - In February 2023, a total of 460 properties were sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board area, a decrease of 35.9% compared to the 718 sold in February 2022, but an increase of 65.5% from the 277 sold in January 2023. Of these, 161 were condos, a 39.7% decrease from February 2022, and 220 were single-family homes, a 28.8% decrease from February 2022.
As for inventory, At the end of February, the MLS had 1,809 active listings for sale, a 4% increase from January and a hearty 113.1% increase from the 849 active listings seen the year before.
Considering Price/Looking Forward -The current mortgage rates seem to be well baked into the price at this point and the announcement from the Bank of Canada on March 8th to hold rates was somewhat reassuring. The next announcements are scheduled for April 12th and June 7th which will be dates to watch closely. Employment remains very tight and it will put policymakers in a very tough spot if inflation doesn’t cooperate between now and April 12th.
As we said in the overview, the months of inventory swung heavily, from 6.25 MOI in January to 2.93 MOI in February. Based on February numbers it would appear pressure will at least keep prices where they are, if not bring them up a bit. That being said, sales usually peak around March from seasonal factors and inventory grows until April or May. So far in March both sales and new listings are slower than last year but new listings do seem to be outpacing sales at a greater rate which should bring the months of inventory to somewhere between January and February.
As for Home Price Index prices (which are delayed), the value of a single-family home in the Victoria Core area was $1,321,400. The benchmark value for the same home decreased by 5.6% to $1,247,200 in February 2023, compared to the January value of $1,251,100. The value for a condo in the Victoria Core area in February 2022 was $580,900, and the benchmark value for the same condo decreased by 2.2% to $568,200 in February 2023, compared to the January value of $578,300.
Neal Estate Group Highlights - This month, while fielding a ton of calls from our clients who are looking for advice navigating these changes, we are getting into the planning of our 24th annual Easter Egg Hunt. Scheduled for April 8th at Elk Lake/Beaver Lake park and we look forward to welcoming our community for cupcake decoration, face painting, our colouring contest, and a huge egg hunt once again this year. All proceeds, as always, going to support BC Children's hospital.
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