Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates held steady last Friday. And that was a relief after a solid week of rises.

There may be more good news today. Because, judging from early market movements, mortgage rates might fall a little or hold steady again today. But be aware that all that could change if investors switch direction in coming hours, something they’ve recently done frequently.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 22nd, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 22nd, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

You might want to wait until tomorrow to lock your rate because a possible fall is on the cards today. But I still think you should lock soon. Because I see no sign that the rising trend is doing more than taking a breather.

Yes, there’s always the possibility of rates falling back in a sustained and significant way. But, right now, that seems to me to be highly unlikely.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 1.70% from 1.74% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mixed on opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices climbed to $61.50 from $59.15 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices held steady at $1,733 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Moved down to 53 from 58 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to fall but that’s far from assured. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 22nd, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

The 2021 upward trend in mortgage rates has been mostly down to optimism over the economic recovery following the pandemic. Looking ahead, investors seem to think that’s all but assured.

But a new upward force has been haunting markets. And that may even be set to take over as the main driver of higher mortgage rates. Regular readers will know that’s the fear of future inflation.

Last week, Bank of America polled portfolio managers, who concluded that inflation was their No. 1 risk. And today another survey was published by the National Association for Business Economics that found, “A majority of the 205 members [all top economists] surveyed said they believe risks to inflation are greater than those seen in the past two decades,” according to CNN Business.

Investors in long-term fixed-rate assets (such as mortgages and treasury bonds) hate inflation. And when they fear inflation most, they sell those securities, which inevitably pushes up yields and rates.

So there seems to me to be no end in sight to higher mortgage rates.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Mar. 18 report puts that weekly average at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.05%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21, and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on March 17 and the MBA’s on Feb. 19. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly and its figures are from mid-January:

Forecaster	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21
Fannie Mae	2.9%	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%
Freddie Mac	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	2.8%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Mar 22nd, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology