MPC Preview: rate cuts on hold for now Mortgage Finance Gazette

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The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 4.25% when the Monetary Policy Committee meets next Thursday.

The rate-setting panel cut the base rate by 25 basis points at their last meeting in May, but most economists are predicting there will be a pause before any further reductions.

Canada Life Asset Management investment director for liquidity Steve Matthews says: “We expect the Bank of England to hold rates steady this month. Inflation remains persistent, employment data is stable, and GDP prints have been benign – suggesting no immediate need for further cuts.

“While the broader trajectory for rates remains downward, the path ahead now looks shallower than previously anticipated.

“Market pricing suggests the next move is unlikely before September, and possibly later.

“Added to this, uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is creating a more cautious global backdrop – no one wants to make a move prematurely.

“This is a pause, not a pivot, as the Bank adopts a measured, data-dependent approach in a stable, if lethargic, economic environment.”

Oxford Economics economist Edward Allenby says: “Recent data supports the case for further easing and should reduce the MPC’s worries about inflation stickiness.

“But we don’t think the data has been weak enough to prompt the committee to up the pace of cuts from the tempo seen since last August.”

Allenby believes the MPC will be watching pay and jobs data closely for the next couple of months.

They will be looking to see how the labour market has responded to April’s rises in employers’ national insurance contributions and the national living wage.

He expects two further 25 bps cuts this year in August and November.

Former MPC member Michael Saunders, who is now a senior economic adviser at Oxford Economics is predicting even bigger cuts.

He says: “Given their emphasis on gradual easing, it is unlikely the MPC will cut rates at this meeting.

“But the path to further easing is becoming clearer.

“I expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate 25 bps in August, with easing of about 100 bps over the year ahead — somewhat more than markets price in.”