House price growth has slowed in the 12 months to January 2026, while private rents remained unchanged in the year to February 2026, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
ONS provisional estimates are that average UK monthly private rents increased by 3.5%, to £1,374, in the 12 months to February 2026.
This annual growth rate is unchanged in the 12 months to January 2026.
Average rents increased to £1,430 (3.6%) in England, £828 (5.5%) in Wales, and £1,022 (2.4%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to February 2026.
In Northern Ireland, average rents increased to £875 (5.2%), in the 12 months to December 2025.
In England, private rents annual inflation was highest in the North East (7.6%), and lowest in London (1.7%), in the 12 months to February 2026.
Average UK house prices increased by 1.3%, to £268,000, in the 12 months to January 2026.
This annual growth rate is down from 1.9% in the 12 months to December 2025.
Average house prices increased to £290,000 (1.1%) in England, £210,000 (2%) in Wales, and £188,000 (1.3%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to January 2026.
Quilter mortgage expert Karen Noye says: “The crucial point is that all of this data predates the sharp repricing in mortgage markets triggered by the outbreak of the war.”
“Monthly momentum had already slipped, with prices falling 0.3% between December and January, suggesting the market was softening even before lenders were forced to rebase fixed rate products in response to the geopolitical shock this March.”
“January’s dataset captures a period shaped by falling inflation expectations and gradually improving affordability, not the jump seen in funding costs since the start of the war, that has pushed mortgage rates higher and weighed on buyer confidence. The headline figures therefore provide a backward looking snapshot of a market that has already shifted materially.”
“As rate volatility feeds through to mortgage offers and stress tests, the pressure on already stretched first time buyers is likely to intensify. At the same time, if inflation begins to rise again while wage growth fails to keep pace, household savings will be squeezed for a second time. That combination risks eroding the slight affordability gains seen earlier in the winter and could further dampen demand.”
“The modest annual gains recorded in January tell us very little about the trajectory from here. The sharper reality will only begin to show up in the data once the next releases capture the immediate impact of higher borrowing costs, weaker sentiment and tighter household budgets.”
Also commenting, Jackson-Stops chairman Nick Leeming says: “The market has started the year cautiously, with January’s figures showing modest growth and underlying resilience, amid a broader slow down late last year.”
“From what we are seeing on the ground, buyers are willing to proceed where value stacks up, the home is well-presented, and the price is right – realistic pricing is king in today’s market.”
“Looking ahead, with the situation in the Middle East remaining volatile, and interest rate expectations shifting, we’re likely to see some buyers move to get transactions agreed sooner rather than later.”
“As rates are expected to drift upwards through the year, buyers are acting with greater certainty that current rates are more favourable than they may be in the months ahead, creating a short-term uplift in demand even as overall activity remains cautious. However, we remain in a fast-moving situation and expectations can change by the day.”
“As a result, while the spring market should see healthy levels of activity, any upward movement in values is likely to be modest and increasingly location specific.”
Meanwhile, Saffron for Intermediaries national sales manager Lee Williams adds: “The latest increase in house prices is encouraging, particularly given the heightened level of global uncertainty in recent weeks.”
“Back-to-back rises in January and February pointed to a solid start to the year and underline the market’s underlying resilience, even as external pressures continue to build.”
“While earlier momentum was supported by improving sentiment and more active pricing from lenders, recent geopolitical developments have caused the market to pause, with some providers repricing or withdrawing products as conditions shift.”
“Looking ahead, the outlook remains more measured. With expectations of further interest rate cuts now on hold, as reflected in last week’s decision to hold rates, alongside ongoing global uncertainty and a shifting policy landscape, some buyers may adopt a more cautious approach in the near term.”
