Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. We started the week on a negative note tied to stronger than expected data and ended negative in response to the solid employment report. Stronger data pushed back against the argument that the Fed should pivot sooner rather than later. ISM Index was 50.3 vs 48.4. Factory orders rose 1.4% vs 1.1%. ADP employment came in at 184K vs 148K. Weekly jobless claims were 221K vs 214K. The trade deficit was $68.9B vs $67.3B. Unemployment was 3.8% vs 3.9%. Non-farm payrolls rose 303K vs 200K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.
Looking Ahead
| Economic Indicator | Release Date & Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
| 3-year Treasury Note Auction | Tuesday, April 9, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Consumer Price Index | Wednesday, April 10, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.3%, Core up 0.3% | Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates. |
| 10-year Treasury Note Auction | Wednesday, April 10, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Fed Minutes | Wednesday, April 10, 2:00 pm, et | None | Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed. |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | Thursday, April 11, 8:30 am, et | 220K | Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates. |
| Producer Price Index | Thursday, April 11, 8:30 am, et | Up 0.3%, Core up 0.2% | Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates. |
| 30-year Treasury Bond Auction | Thursday, April 11, 1:15 pm, et | None | Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Friday, April 12, 10:00 am, et | 79.4 | Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
EIA
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the nation’s premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government.
EIA conducts a comprehensive data collection program that covers the full spectrum of energy sources, end uses, and energy flows. EIA also prepares informative energy analyses, monthly short-term forecasts of energy market trends, and long-term U.S. and international energy outlooks. EIA disseminates its data, analyses, and other products primarily through its website, EIA.gov.” This week’s EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be released Tuesday. The recent trend has seen energy prices spike higher amid geopolitical tensions and increased instability in the Middle East. Rising energy prices generally put upward pressure on rates.
