MIG Market Watch, April 8th, 2024 - Mortgage Investors Group

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Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. We started the week on a negative note tied to stronger than expected data and ended negative in response to the solid employment report. Stronger data pushed back against the argument that the Fed should pivot sooner rather than later. ISM Index was 50.3 vs 48.4. Factory orders rose 1.4% vs 1.1%. ADP employment came in at 184K vs 148K. Weekly jobless claims were 221K vs 214K. The trade deficit was $68.9B vs $67.3B. Unemployment was 3.8% vs 3.9%. Non-farm payrolls rose 303K vs 200K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/4 of a discount point.

Looking Ahead
Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis
3-year Treasury Note Auction Tuesday, April 9, 1:15 pm, et None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Price Index Wednesday, April 10, 8:30 am, et Up 0.3%, Core up 0.3% Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
10-year Treasury Note Auction Wednesday, April 10, 1:15 pm, et None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Minutes Wednesday, April 10, 2:00 pm, et None Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed.
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, April 11, 8:30 am, et 220K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Producer Price Index Thursday, April 11, 8:30 am, et Up 0.3%, Core up 0.2% Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
30-year Treasury Bond Auction Thursday, April 11, 1:15 pm, et None Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, April 12, 10:00 am, et 79.4 Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
EIA

“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the nation’s premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government.

EIA conducts a comprehensive data collection program that covers the full spectrum of energy sources, end uses, and energy flows. EIA also prepares informative energy analyses, monthly short-term forecasts of energy market trends, and long-term U.S. and international energy outlooks. EIA disseminates its data, analyses, and other products primarily through its website, EIA.gov.” This week’s EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be released Tuesday. The recent trend has seen energy prices spike higher amid geopolitical tensions and increased instability in the Middle East. Rising energy prices generally put upward pressure on rates.


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