House prices remained on a downward trajectory in September, according to the latest figures from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

Its UK residential survey showed that indicators on housing demand, sales, instructions and prices all remain in negative territory, but the near-term outlook, although downbeat remains stable – with fewer surveyors expecting the situation to significantly worsen from here. 

The figures show the pace of house price falls has been consistent over the past few months. While there has been downward pressure on house prices across most of the UK, Rics says this is particularly pronounced in the West Midlands and the South East of England. These regions have a net balance of -94% and 91% respectively compared to a national figure of -69%

Looking ahead, the near-term expectations point to a further price falls in the next three months, although the latest net balance of -48% is marginally better than the -65% recorded in the previous month. 

Rics says many surveyors are also expecting to see price falls over a 12-month time horizon, with indicators retuning a national net balance of -33%. However it says this is “slightly less downcast” than the figure of almost -50% that was recorded through June to August this year.

There was a similar picture across the other main indicators, where the headline figures remain negative, but are not quite so gloomy as figures recorded in July and August.  The figure for new buyer enquiries, for example stood at -39% in September: a downbeat figure, but an improvement on the -46% recorded the previous month.

Meanwhile September’s figure for agreed sales stood at -37%, slightly less negative than the -46% and -45% recorded in August and July respectively.

Respondents continue to envisage a decline in sales volumes over the next three months. But there were more positive 12-month sales expectations, with this figure returning a net balance of +3% (up from -5% last time). Rics says this signalled a much more stable trend in sales volumes emerging over the year ahead.

Rics senior economist Tarrant Parsons says: “With mortgage affordability still incredibly stretched, it is unsurprising that buyer activity across the housing market remained subdued in September. 

“Although the decision to pause monetary policy tightening a few weeks ago provided a glimmer of relief for the market, interest rates are likely now set to remain on hold for a prolonged period. As such, it appears there is little prospect of trends deviating much from the recent picture in the immediate future. That said, the outlook a little further ahead has improved slightly, with twelve-month sales expectations moving out of negative territory for the first time in several reports.”

MT Finance director Tomer Aboody says: ‘There are welcome indicators that the market is stabilising with more confidence among buyers and sellers prompted by the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates.

‘However, we are not out of the woods just yet with a number of fixed-rate mortgages set to come to an end in coming weeks and months. Those borrowers still face a significant payment shock, even though it may not be as bad as it could have been just a few months ago.”

Former Rics resiential chairman and north London estate agent Jeremy Leaf adds:  “The usually reliable RICS sentiment index remains in ‘Eeyore’ mood yet the gloomy outlook for the next three months is no surprise.

“Our offices are finding lower mortgage rates are helping to generate more viewings, particularly for smaller family houses, but they are not falling fast enough yet to make a significant difference to sluggish activity.

“However, buyers are not having it all their own way. Bearing in mind approximately four out of five sellers are also trying to purchase, most are resisting attempts to make any more than modest price reductions to avoid chains collapsing.

“Looking forward, there is optimism that the cost of living ­– including mortgage rates – will bottom out shortly and encourage more effective demand in the early part of 2024.”

Interactive Investor head of investment Victoria Scholar adds: “The RICS house price balance weakness echoes similar figures on the dire state of the housing market from mortgage lenders. With Halifax reporting house prices suffered their steepest drop since 2009 in September. This comes as 14 consecutive rate increases from the Bank of England take their toll on mortgage demand, in turn weighing on house prices. Sellers are less incentivised to list their properties too with house prices coming down.

“With interest rates set to remain higher for longer, there’s likely to be ongoing pressure on house prices ahead. However, with the Bank of England keeping rates on hold at its most recent decision, strong wage growth and recent cuts to fixed rate mortgage deals, conditions have been improving slightly this month. And a shortage of housing supply in the UK is likely to stem an even steeper downturn in property prices.”