Brokers’ share of the mortgage market could plunge to 50 per cent or lower within a decade as lenders harness data and technology to target customers directly, industry experts have warned.

At a recent roundtable on the mortgage market in 2030, hosted by financial services communications consultancy MRM, doubts were cast over whether brokers could maintain their current 77 per cent share of business.

Speakers agreed that lenders would take advantage of big data and machine learning to make their direct channel more slick and offer bespoke rates to borrowers.

Myhomemove group distribution director Dev Malle said: “I would say, potentially, 50 per cent of the market in the next 10 years will be execution-only or a hybrid version of it. 

“The critical bit here is data. Brokers haven’t got anything like the data lenders have. Are lenders going to trust risk decisions to a third-party when they have access to this data? “

Industry consultant and ex-FCA mortgage manager Lynda Blackwell said: “The broker market will be a lot smaller in the future. 

“I think disintermediation is really starting to happen and intermediaries are definitely going to be impacted.

“Big lenders are going to digitalise and move away from brokers because it is such an expensive distribution channel.”

However, the group agreed that a substantial share of borrowers would still favour independent advice from a human broker.

Coreco managing director Andrew Montlake said: “Brokers won’t have a 75 per cent share of the market [in 2030] but they will still have a really good future. 

“It’s all about adapting to consumer demand; reacting to how they want to be deal with; embracing tech, rather than being afraid of it; and looking after their clients better.

“There will be fewer brokers in the market but if those that are left can do all of this, then they will have a good relationship with their clients and will thrive.”

Keystone Property Finance chief executive David Whittaker said traditional lenders have just as much to fear from technology as brokers, if they fail to keep pace with disruptors.

He said: “Just as brokers need to fear for their future, so too do incumbent high street lenders, whose grip on technology is at best passing, and have shown no willingness to get to grips with today’s problems. 

“They have to be more fearful about what is going to happen to them, rather than brokers having to be fearful for their future.”