Following a sluggish end to 2026, construction is set to rebound from 2027 onwards. This is according to Glenigan’s UK Construction Industry Forecast 2027-2028.
Predominantly focused on underlying projects (less than £100m in value), it contains a comprehensive overview of the current state of the construction industry and provides a forecast over the next two years.
Glenigan’s 2027-2028 Forecast reappraises the predictions made during the Summer 2026 edition, while still maintaining the broad expectation that the sector will start seeing the green shoots of recovery next year with further gains made over the next 24 months.
Unsurprisingly, given the events of the past six months, 2026 will finish on a low note, posting an overall decline of -13%. This figure is far lower than expected earlier in the year, persuading Glenigan to fully re-evaluate the predictions from its Summer Forecast.
According to Glenigan, this double-digit decline of the construction sector is prompted by persistent socio-economic turmoil, ongoing international conflict and lingering political uncertainty, which the new Burnham-led Government has yet to overcome.
However, despite this challenging set of circumstances, Glenigan’s Economics Unit, which researched and produced this Forecast, predicts an industry-wide uptick in activity in 2027 (+11%) and 2028 (+7%).
Whilst these figures are lower than calculated in the Summer, sustained growth will likely emerge, supported by a combination of increased public sector spending and a tentatively improving private sector appetite for investment in residential and commercial projects.
Glenigan pointed out that private residential had been one of the hardest hit verticals over the past 12 months, with a sluggish market, high mortgage rates and rising development costs all pushing developers to defer opening new sites.
As such, the estimated fall this year is steep (-24%); however, a gradual recovery is expected from 2027, supported by improving consumer confidence and a strengthening housing market.
